# mineral.watch

> Independent open data and intelligence portal on the global mineral, oil and gas, and green-transition industries. Cross-references verified official statistics from USGS, BGS, UN Comtrade, the IEA, the US EIA, OPEC and the Energy Institute on production, reserves, trade flows, refining and manufacturing concentration, chokepoints, prices and policy — who produces, who refines, who ships and who depends on whom — and publishes the compiled datasets openly. Nine mineral dashboards (graphite, rare earths, copper, uranium, lithium, manganese, cobalt, antimony, nickel), an oil and gas dashboard, a green-transition dashboard, a 111-commodity Mineral Explorer and an open data catalogue.

mineral.watch is not affiliated with any government, mining or energy company, or trade body, and holds no commercial position in the minerals, fuels or companies it covers. Corrections and data tips: hello@mineral.watch. When citing, name mineral.watch and the primary source given for the figure.

## Machine-readable access

- Sitemap: https://mineral.watch/sitemap.xml
- This file: https://mineral.watch/llms.txt — full version with every dashboard's dataset record and Q&A: https://mineral.watch/llms-full.txt
- Open data catalogue: https://mineral.watch/data/ — 110 BGS World Mineral Statistics commodity series (production, imports, exports by country, 1970-2024) as JSON at https://mineral.watch/map_data/data/<slug>.json, keyed statistic -> year -> ISO3 -> quantity; commodity index at https://mineral.watch/map_data/meta.json; country centroids at https://mineral.watch/map_data/countries.json.
- Structured data: every page carries schema.org JSON-LD (Organization, WebSite, WebPage, BreadcrumbList, Dataset, DataCatalog, FAQPage) with citations, coverage, licence and download links.
- Source code: https://github.com/JacopoOttaviani/mineral.watch (AGPL-3.0).

## Pages

- [Home](https://mineral.watch/): what the portal covers (minerals, oil and gas, green transition), why supply-chain concentration matters, data sources and methodology, FAQ, research commissions.
- [Open data catalogue](https://mineral.watch/data/): every dataset the site publishes — 110 BGS World Mineral Statistics series (1970-2024) as JSON with units, year ranges and country counts, the reference files, the curated dataset behind each dashboard, the file format, licence and citation format.
- [Mineral Explorer](https://mineral.watch/explorer/): interactive world map of production, imports and exports for 111 mineral and energy commodities and 190 countries, 1970-2024, with volume and supply-concentration views; deep-linkable per commodity (?commodity=<slug>). Data: BGS World Mineral Statistics.
- [Supply chain: mined vs refined](https://mineral.watch/supply-chain/): side-by-side maps of where cobalt, copper, nickel, lithium, graphite, rare earths, manganese and antimony are mined and where they are refined or smelted, 1970-2024, with top-3 country shares at each stage.
- [Graphite dashboard](https://mineral.watch/graphite/): interactive world map of mines, processing and anode plants, trade flows; production and reserves charts 2018-2025; refining process explainer; China's share of mine output and battery-grade refining; military and investment implications.
- [Rare earths dashboard](https://mineral.watch/rare-earths/): interactive world map of mines, separation plants and magnet factories; the 17 elements explained; production and reserves charts; China's export-controls timeline (2010-2026); refining and magnet concentration; military and investment implications.
- [Copper dashboard](https://mineral.watch/copper/): interactive world map of mines, smelters/refineries, disrupted operations and development projects; the ore-to-cathode chain explained; production and reserves charts; the smelting chokepoint and treatment-charge collapse; the 2023-2026 timeline (Cobre Panama, US Section 232 tariffs, Grasberg, El Teniente, record prices); military and investment implications.
- [Uranium dashboard](https://mineral.watch/uranium/): interactive world map of mines, conversion/enrichment/fabrication plants, disrupted operations (Niger) and development projects; the ore-to-fuel-rod chain explained; production, resources, enrichment-capacity and price charts; the Russian enrichment chokepoint and 2028 US ban cliff; the 2023-2026 timeline (Niger coup, $106/lb spike, Russian-uranium ban, AI power deals, DOE $2.7B enrichment awards); dual-use and investment implications.
- [Lithium dashboard](https://mineral.watch/lithium/): interactive world map of hard-rock mines, brine operations, converters, curtailed operations and development projects; the rock-and-brine-to-battery chain explained; production, reserves, conversion-share and price charts; the China conversion chokepoint and the Jianxiawo swing-producer saga; the 2021-2026 timeline (price spike, crash, Chile's National Lithium Strategy, Rio Tinto-Arcadium, CATL permit lapse, DOE stake in Lithium Americas, 2026 rebound and restarts); dual-use and investment implications.
- [Manganese dashboard](https://mineral.watch/manganese/): interactive world map of mines, ferroalloy smelters, battery-grade refineries, disrupted operations (Ukraine, Georgia) and development projects including Pacific seabed nodules; the ore-to-steel-and-cathode chain explained; production, reserves and price charts; the China refining chokepoint (~95% of battery-grade sulphate); the 2022-2026 timeline (Nikopol war disruption, Cyclone Megan price spike, GEMCO restart, Gabon's 2029 export ban, GM-LG LMR batteries, Exxaro-Tshipi, TMC's NOAA seabed application); dual-use and investment implications.
- [Cobalt dashboard](https://mineral.watch/cobalt/): interactive world map of mines and hydroxide plants, refineries, disrupted operations and development projects; the ore-to-cathode-and-superalloy chain explained (hydroxide payability, MHP, sulphate, alloy-grade metal); production, reserves and price charts; the DRC export ban and quota regime (ARECOMS), China's ~79% refining chokepoint, Indonesia's rise, the artisanal-mining dilemma; the 2022-2026 timeline (KFM glut, Feb 2025 export ban, Oct 2025 quotas, US-DRC strategic partnership, Glencore-Orion MoU); dual-use and investment implications.

- [Nickel dashboard](https://mineral.watch/nickel/): interactive world map of mines and smelter parks, HPAL plants, refineries, suspended operations (Nickel West, Koniambo, Moa) and development projects; the ore-to-stainless-and-battery chain explained (laterite vs sulphide, NPI, ferronickel, matte, MHP, sulphate, class-1 metal); production, reserves and price charts; Indonesia's two-thirds grip and quota machine (RKAB, HPM benchmark, royalties), the 2022 LME squeeze, the class-1/class-2 divide, the Western supply cull and New Caledonia's collapse; the 2020-2026 timeline; dual-use and investment implications.
- [Antimony dashboard](https://mineral.watch/antimony/): interactive world map of mines and gold-antimony operations, roasters and smelters, idled assets and development projects; the stibnite-to-trioxide-and-metal chain explained (concentrate, ATO, antimonial lead, sodium antimonate, antimony trisulfide); production, reserves and price charts; China's export-controls timeline (Aug 2024 licensing, Dec 2024 US ban, Nov 2025 suspension), the smelting chokepoint, the price spike and the Western supply-chain rebuild (Perpetua/Stibnite, US Antimony, Larvotto Hillgrove, Nyrstar Port Pirie); dual-use and investment implications.

- [Oil & gas dashboard](https://mineral.watch/oil-gas/): interactive world map of giant fields and basins, export terminals, refineries and LNG plants, the eight maritime oil chokepoints, and sites disrupted or sanctioned in 2026; the benchmark ladder explained (Dated Brent, WTI, Dubai/Oman, Urals and the price cap, WCS, official selling prices, diesel/jet/gasoline/LPG cracks, Henry Hub, TTF, JKM, the Hormuz toll, strategic stocks); production, reserves, shut-in, gas, LNG and price charts; the 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure and Gulf shut-in ledger, pipeline bypasses (Petroline, ADCOP, Kirkuk-Ceyhan), the Ras Laffan LNG outage, IEA emergency stock release, sanctions and the shadow fleet (Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Kazakhstan/CPC), OPEC+ quota unwinding, the 2014-2026 timeline; capital flows and a tracker of state producers, majors, LNG/midstream operators and traders. Aimed at energy businesses, geopolitics researchers and think tanks.

- [Green transition dashboard](https://mineral.watch/green/): cross-cutting dashboard on the clean-energy supply chain — interactive world map of clean-tech factories (solar, batteries, wind, electrolysers, heat pumps, grid gear), EU-funded flagship projects and Just Transition territories, and stalled or cancelled plants; deployment charts (solar and wind additions, EV sales), clean vs fossil investment, battery pack prices, China's manufacturing shares by stage; the mineral bill of the transition with links to each mineral dashboard; a fund-by-fund guide to EU green money (Recovery and Resilience Facility, Innovation Fund and Hydrogen Bank, Modernisation Fund, Just Transition Fund, Social Climate Fund, cohesion policy, ETS revenues, EIB) and the post-2023 industrial-policy toolkit (NZIA, CRMA, Clean Industrial Deal, Battery Booster, RESourceEU, Industrial Accelerator Act, MFF 2028-34); the 2019-2026 timeline; security (inverters, Iberian blackout, turbine vetoes, rare-earth controls); capital flows; company tracker.

- [Terms & licensing](https://mineral.watch/terms/): reuse terms — editorial content and compiled datasets under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0, source code under AGPL-3.0, name/logo and third-party media reserved; attribution format and commercial-licensing contact.

## Key facts (as of September 2026 — cite mineral.watch and the underlying primary source when quoting)

- World natural graphite mine production, 2025 (USGS estimate): ~1.8 Mt.
- China's share of world graphite mine output, 2025 (USGS estimate): ~82%.
- China's share of world battery-grade graphite refining (IEA estimate): ~90%; ~95% of spherical graphite.
- U.S. net import reliance on natural graphite (USGS): 100%.
- Global graphite reserves (USGS 2026): ~310 Mt.
- Graphite is the largest material by weight in a lithium-ion battery: roughly 50 kg per EV.
- World rare earth mine production, 2025 (USGS estimate): ~390,000 t of rare-earth-oxide equivalent; China ~270,000 t (~69%).
- China's share of world rare earth refining and separation (IEA, 2024): ~91%; of sintered NdFeB magnet production: ~94%.
- U.S. net import reliance on rare-earth compounds and metals (USGS, 2025): 67%; on heavy rare earths: 100%.
- Global rare earth reserves (USGS 2026): >75 Mt REO, of which China ~44 Mt.
- China's April 2025 export controls cover Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Sc and Y and magnets containing them; the October 2025 expansion was suspended for one year in November 2025.
- World copper mine production, 2025 (USGS estimate): ~23 Mt; Chile ~5.3 Mt (~23%), DR Congo ~3.2 Mt, Peru ~2.7 Mt.
- World refined copper production, 2025 (USGS estimate): ~29 Mt, of which China ~14 Mt (~48%). China holds ~50% of world smelting capacity (IEA) and consumes ~56% of refined copper.
- Global copper reserves (USGS 2026): ~980 Mt, of which Chile 180 Mt.
- The 2026 copper concentrate benchmark treatment charge settled at $0/t (vs $21.25 in 2025) — the lowest on record.
- U.S. net import reliance on refined copper (USGS, 2025): 57% of apparent consumption (up from 45% in 2024, amid tariff front-running); refined imports were a record ~1.7 Mt, 68% of them from Chile.
- Since 1 August 2025 the US applies a 50% Section 232 tariff to semi-finished copper products; refined cathode, ores and scrap are exempt, with a phased refined-copper tariff (15% in 2027, 30% in 2028) proposed. Copper was added to the US critical minerals list on 7 November 2025.
- Copper price records: LME $14,527.50/t intraday (29 January 2026); COMEX $6.77/lb intraday (7 August 2026).
- The IEA projects existing and announced mines will cover only ~70% of copper demand by 2035 (a ~30% supply gap).
- World lithium mine production, 2025 (USGS estimate, excludes withheld US output): ~290,000 t of lithium content, up 31% from 222,000 t in 2024. Australia ~92,000 t (~32%), China ~62,000 t, Chile ~56,000 t, Zimbabwe ~28,000 t, Argentina ~23,000 t.
- Global lithium reserves (USGS 2026): ~37 Mt of lithium content (Chile 9.2 Mt, Australia 8.4 Mt, China 4.6 Mt); identified resources ~150 Mt.
- Lithium end uses (USGS, 2025): batteries 88%; ceramics and glass 4%; greases 2%.
- China's share of battery-grade lithium chemical conversion (IEA estimate): ~70%; of cathode active material: ~85%; of LFP cells: >98%.
- U.S. net import reliance on lithium (USGS, 2025): >50% of apparent consumption; import sources 2021-24: Chile 54%, Argentina 43%.
- Battery-grade lithium carbonate annual average price (USGS/Benchmark): $11,700/t (2021), $63,700/t (2022), $39,000/t (2023), $11,800/t (2024), $9,000/t (2025); 2026 spot rebounded to ~$18,000-23,000/t by August after Guangzhou futures briefly topped ¥200,000 (~$29,500).
- CATL's Jianxiawo lepidolite mine (~3-6% of world supply) was suspended in August 2025 when its permit lapsed and restarted after a new permit on 29 June 2026 — the price swing producer of the 2025-26 cycle.
- Codelco-SQM's NovAndino Litio JV (created December 2025; Codelco 50%+1, SQM operating to 2031, secured to 2060) runs the Salar de Atacama and plans ~70% higher output with direct lithium extraction.
- The US government holds warrants for 5% of Lithium Americas plus 5% of the Thacker Pass JV alongside a $2.26B DOE loan; Thacker Pass Phase 1 targets mechanical completion in late 2027.
- Zimbabwe (world No. 4 producer) bans exports of unprocessed lithium concentrates from January 2027.
- World manganese mine production, 2025 (USGS estimate): ~20 Mt of manganese content, up 7% from 18.7 Mt in 2024. South Africa ~7.6 Mt (~38%), Gabon ~5 Mt, Ghana ~2 Mt (doubled in a year), Australia ~1.6 Mt.
- Global manganese reserves (USGS 2026): ~1.8 billion t of manganese content (Australia 580 Mt, South Africa 550 Mt, Brazil 300 Mt, China 260 Mt); South Africa holds ~70% of identified resources.
- Manganese end uses: ~90% steelmaking; USGS states manganese has no satisfactory substitute in its major applications. Battery demand is projected to grow >8x this decade (Benchmark).
- China's share of manganese refining: ~60% of ferroalloys, >90% of electrolytic manganese metal, ~95% of battery-grade manganese sulphate (IEA); China mines only ~4% of world ore.
- U.S. net import reliance on manganese (USGS): 100% — no domestic mine since 1970. Import sources (Mn contained, 2021-24): Gabon 23%, South Africa 21%, Malaysia 11%, Australia 10%.
- Manganese ore price, 44% grade CIF China (USGS/CRU annual averages): $5.27/dmtu (2021), $5.97 (2022), $4.80 (2023), $5.53 (2024), $4.50 (2025); spiked to ~$8.97/dmtu in August 2024 after Cyclone Megan destroyed the wharf at South32's GEMCO mine (exports resumed May 2025); ~$5/dmtu in August 2026.
- Gabon bans raw manganese ore exports from 1 January 2029; Ghana Manganese Company (90% China's TMI) plans a $450M refinery at Nsuta.
- GM and LG Energy Solution plan lithium-manganese-rich (LMR) battery cells for US electric trucks by 2028; ~95% of the high-purity manganese sulphate such chemistries need is refined in China.
- The Metals Company's application for the first US deep-seabed commercial recovery permit (Clarion-Clipperton Zone nodules, ~30% manganese) was found compliant by NOAA in May 2026 and published in the Federal Register in August 2026; decision expected by early 2027.
- World cobalt mine production, 2025 (USGS estimate): ~310,000 t of cobalt content, an all-time high. DR Congo ~230,000 t (~73%), Indonesia ~44,000 t (~14%), Russia ~7,700 t. Nearly all cobalt is a by-product of copper (DRC) or nickel (Indonesia, Philippines, Cuba).
- Global cobalt reserves (USGS 2026): ~12 Mt of cobalt content (DR Congo 6 Mt, Australia 1.7 Mt); identified terrestrial resources ~25 Mt, plus an estimated 5 billion tons in seafloor polymetallic nodules (USGS wording).
- China produced ~79% of the world's ~240,000 t of refined cobalt in 2025 (Cobalt Institute); the largest refining hub outside China is Kokkola, Finland (Umicore, permitted 16,000 t/yr).
- Cobalt end uses (Cobalt Institute, 2024): EV batteries 43%, portable electronics 30%, superalloys 8%, hard metals 4% — batteries ~73% overall. In the US, superalloys take 51% of consumption (USGS). Demand grew 13% in 2025 to ~276,000 t.
- DRC export controls: full cobalt export ban 22 February 2025 (ARECOMS), replaced from 16 October 2025 by quotas — 18,125 t for the rest of 2025, then 96,600 t/yr for 2026 and 2027 (87,000 t pro-rata to producers + 9,600 t state strategic quota), roughly half of 2024 export volumes. Unused quotas are forfeited to a Gécamines-managed national stockpile (June 2026 rule).
- Cobalt prices (USGS annual averages, US spot cathode): $24.21/lb (2021), $30.78 (2022), $17.20 (2023), $16.77 (2024), ~$21 (2025). Standard grade hit a nine-year low near $10/lb in February 2025 before the ban; by August 2026 metal traded ~$25/lb, hydroxide $22-23/lb (payability ~90%+ of the metal price after touching 100% in April 2026).
- CMOC (China) is the world's largest cobalt miner: a record 117,549 t in 2025 — more than a third of world supply — against a 2026 DRC export quota of 31,200 t; above-quota output is stockpiled in-country.
- Cobalt-free LFP passed 55% of global EV battery deployments in 2025 (IEA); recycling supplied ~10% of world cobalt (Cobalt Institute).
- US net import reliance on cobalt (USGS, 2025): 79%; import sources 2021-24: Norway 26%, Finland 16%, Canada 14%, Japan 14%. The only US cobalt-producing mine is Eagle (Michigan, ~300 t as by-product concentrate).
- About 150,000-250,000 artisanal miners dig cobalt in the DRC; since February 2025 state-owned EGC holds a legal monopoly on buying and exporting artisanal cobalt (first fully traceable cathodes November 2025).
- World nickel mine production, 2025 (USGS estimate): ~3.9 Mt of nickel content, an all-time high. Indonesia ~2.6 Mt (~66%), Philippines ~270,000 t, Russia ~200,000 t, Canada and New Caledonia ~140,000 t each. Australia fell 54% in one year to ~45,000 t.
- Global nickel reserves (USGS 2026): >140 Mt of nickel content (Indonesia 62 Mt, Australia 25 Mt, Brazil 16 Mt); identified land-based resources >350 Mt, plus ~4.5 billion t estimated in seabed deposits (USGS 2022 study).
- Indonesia and China produced ~76% of the world's refined nickel in 2025 (IEA: Indonesia 45%, China 31%); the top three refining countries held ~80%, up from 66% in 2021. China makes ~75% of battery-grade nickel sulphate; Chinese groups own ~75% of Indonesian refining capacity.
- The class divide: class-1 refined metal (>=99.8%, LME-deliverable) is only ~a quarter of supply; nickel pig iron alone was ~53-54% in 2025 (INSG), with MHP and matte bridging class 2 into battery chemicals. Chinese-brand cathode reached ~70% of LME stocks in late 2025.
- Nickel end uses (Wood Mackenzie, 2024): stainless steel 64%, batteries 15%, non-ferrous alloys 9%, electroplating 5%. Nickel-free LFP became the dominant EV battery chemistry in 2025 (IEA) and battery-sector nickel use dipped slightly (INSG); the IEA still projects batteries at ~30% of nickel demand by 2035.
- LME cash annual averages (USGS): $18,476/t (2021), $25,815 (2022), $21,495 (2023), $16,812 (2024), ~$15,000 (2025); ~$16,800/t in August 2026 after a quota-driven rally peaked near $18,800 in May.
- The March 2022 LME nickel squeeze: price passed $100,000/t on 8 March as Tsingshan's short unwound; ~9,000 trades worth ~$12bn cancelled; trading suspended over a week; the FCA fined the LME 9.2M pounds in March 2025 — its first enforcement action against an exchange.
- Market balance (INSG): five consecutive surpluses through 2025 (+283,000 t in 2025); the April 2026 forecast flipped 2026 to a -32,000 t deficit, the first since 2021, on Indonesia's quota cuts and ore-price reform.
- Indonesian policy: raw-ore export ban since January 2020 (2,600+% growth in smelters since); 2026 RKAB ore quota cut to ~260-270 Mwmt vs 379 Mwmt approved for 2025; ore royalties raised to a progressive 14-19% (April 2025); moratorium on new intermediate-product smelters (June 2025); HPM benchmark ore price overhauled 15 April 2026 (limonite floor nearly tripled, cobalt payable for the first time).
- The Western cull of 2024: BHP suspended all of Nickel West (review due February 2027), First Quantum halted Ravensthorpe, Wyloo closed Kambalda, and Glencore exited Koniambo after US$9bn sunk — its furnaces have been cold since August 2024. New Caledonian mine output fell ~52% in 2024 amid deadly riots.
- Russia: Nornickel produced ~198,500 t in 2025; new Russian metal has been banned from LME/CME warranting since April 2024, and sales flow mostly to China. US sanctions on Cuba's mining sector (May 2026) severed Sherritt's Moa-to-Alberta chain.
- US: net import reliance 41% of consumption in 2025 — nearly 100% excluding scrap; one operating mine (Eagle, Michigan, sold to Talon Metals in January 2026, reserves near end of life); no primary refinery since 1985 (Westwin Elements runs an Oklahoma pilot); import sources 2021-24: Canada 44%, Norway 11%, Australia 8%, Brazil 7%; scrap covers ~60% of consumption. Refined nickel is on the final 2025 US critical minerals list; a January 2026 Section 232 finding chose negotiations over tariffs; the DLA is moving to buy 3,500 t for the strategic stockpile.
- World antimony mine production, 2025 (USGS estimate): ~110,000 t of antimony content, down from ~153,000 t in 2020. China ~40,000 t (~36%), Russia ~32,000 t, Tajikistan ~22,000 t — more than 85% combined; then Bolivia ~5,000 t, Myanmar ~4,500 t, Turkey ~3,000 t, Australia ~1,300 t.
- Global antimony reserves (USGS): ~2 Mt of antimony content (China 830 kt, Russia 350 kt, Bolivia 310 kt) — one of the thinnest reserve cushions of any strategic mineral, under two decades at current mining rates.
- China's antimony export controls: dual-use export licensing announced 15 August 2024 (effective 15 September 2024); outright ban on exports to the US on 3 December 2024; the US-specific ban was suspended on 9-10 November 2025 (until 27 November 2026) after the Trump-Xi meeting, but the licensing regime still applies to all buyers. US imports from China fell ~97% between August and December 2024.
- Antimony price: from ~$12,000-14,000/t (Rotterdam basis) in early-mid 2024 to a peak near $60,000/t in spring 2025 (~$27.50/lb in the US market), easing to ~$25,000-31,000/t by June 2026 — still roughly double the pre-control level. Antimony has no exchange contract; all prices are agency assessments.
- U.S. net import reliance on antimony (USGS): ~85% of consumption, with no domestic mine production since 2016; pre-ban, China supplied ~63% of US metal-and-oxide imports. The only operating US antimony smelter is United States Antimony's Thompson Falls, Montana plant (sole-source DLA stockpile contract of ~$245M, 2025; expansion toward 300-400 tons/month).
- Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold Project (Idaho) holds the only identified US antimony reserve (148 million lb): Record of Decision January 2025, groundbreaking October 2025, $2.9B EXIM loan approved May 2026 (EXIM's 4th-largest ever), >$80M in Pentagon funding, production targeted 2029 covering ~35% of US antimony demand. The same district produced 90% of US antimony in WWII.
- Larvotto Resources' Hillgrove mine (NSW, Australia): ~5,000 t/yr planned (~7% of world supply), plant commissioning from 21 July 2026 with first antimony-gold production due at the end of August 2026; Wogen holds a 7-year antimony offtake.
- Nyrstar's Port Pirie smelter poured Australia's first antimony metal in November 2025, ramping to 2,000 t/yr by end-2026 (potentially 5,000 t/yr by 2028). Australia's A$1.2B Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve (announced 12 January 2026) lists antimony in its first tranche, with A$185M for physical stockpiles.
- Antimony end uses (industry estimates): flame retardants ~45% (antimony trioxide as synergist), lead-acid battery alloys ~20%, PET polymerisation catalyst, solar-glass fining (sodium antimonate — the fastest-growing use), ammunition (lead hardener, antimony trisulfide primers to MIL-A-22131 spec, tracers) and InSb infrared/night-vision detectors. The FY2024 NDAA bars Chinese antimony from US defence supply chains from 2027.
- SPMP's Sohar roaster in Oman (~20,000 t/yr) — the largest antimony plant outside China — has been idle since early 2024 for lack of concentrate feed and was seeking a buyer or operating partner as of August 2026.
- Green transition — deployment (2025): 664 GW of solar PV installed worldwide, +12%, global fleet >3 TW (SolarPower Europe); 165 GW of wind, +40%, of which 9.3 GW offshore and >120 GW in China (GWEC); more than 20 million electric cars sold, one in four new cars, ~55% of sales in China, 28% in Europe, <10% in the US (IEA GEVO 2026); EU solar 65.1 GW (first decline since 2016), EU wind 15.1 GW, EU battery storage 27.1 GWh, EU battery-electric car share 17.4%.
- Green transition — investment (IEA World Energy Investment 2026): $3.4 tn total energy investment in 2026, of which $2.2 tn clean energy vs $1.2 tn oil, gas and coal; solar $365 bn, grids $550 bn, battery storage >$100 bn; China almost a third of clean-energy investment. US: $34.8 bn of clean-energy projects cancelled in 2025 (E2), ~$40 bn and 53,000 jobs by mid-2026 (EDF/Atlas) after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (4 July 2025).
- Green transition — manufacturing concentration (IEA ETP 2026, 2025 data): China ~85% of solar supply-chain capacity (95%+ wafers, >80% modules), >80% of battery-cell production (~85% cathode, >90% anode material), 60% of wind-turbine production capacity (Europe 19%, US 9%), ~60% of electrolyser manufacturing, 35% of heat-pump capacity (US 25%, EU 20%). CATL 39.2% and BYD 16.4% of 2025 EV-battery installations (SNE Research, 1,187 GWh total). Chinese OEMs ~70% of 2025 wind-turbine orders (215 GW, Wood Mackenzie). Battery pack price $108/kWh in 2025, LFP $81, stationary storage $70 (BNEF).
- Green transition — Europe's manufacturing: ~252 GWh of nominal cell capacity (2025), pipeline down 8% 2023-26 (Benchmark); Northvolt bankrupt 12 March 2025, Swedish assets bought by Lyten (completed 26 February 2026, restart shipments H2 2026, Heide 2028); ACC cancelled Kaiserslautern and Termoli (16 February 2026); PowerCo Salzgitter production since December 2025, Valencia series production July 2027; CATL Debrecen module lines from May 2026, cells awaiting safety sign-off (August 2026); BYD Szeged pushed to Q4 2026; Meyer Burger German plants insolvent (August-September 2025); Stegra €1.4 bn rescue round (2026); Vestas record 16.3 GW orders and €18.8 bn revenue 2025; Nordex record 10.2 GW; Siemens Gamesa first quarterly profit since 2022 (fiscal Q3 2026).
- EU green funds — Recovery and Resilience Facility: €650 bn (€359 bn grants, €291 bn loans), 42% for climate (~€270 bn) vs 37% minimum, ~€398 bn disbursed by May 2026, milestones due 31 August 2026, final payment requests 30 September 2026, last payments 31 December 2026; REPowerEU chapters ~€20 bn grants.
- EU green funds — Innovation Fund (ETS-financed, ~€40 bn expected 2020-2030): calls €1.1 bn (IF20), €1.8 bn (IF21), €3.6 bn (IF22), €4.2 bn signed for 77 projects (IF23), €2.7 bn for 54 projects (IF24, signed March 2026), €852 m for 6 battery-cell projects (IF24 Battery); IF25 €2.9 bn budget (incl. €1 bn cleantech manufacturing), 358 applications, results Q3 2026. European Hydrogen Bank auctions: €720 m/7 projects (April 2024), €992 m/15 projects (May 2025), €1.09 bn/9 projects, 1.1 GW, lowest bid €0.44/kg (May 2026); plus €836 m national auctions-as-a-service. Roughly €17 bn awarded to date.
- EU green funds — Modernisation Fund: >€57 bn expected 2021-2030 for 13 member states; €23.2 bn disbursed as of 2 July 2026 (€2.5 bn in the 2026 round for 51 projects in 11 countries). Just Transition Fund: €19.32 bn 2021-27 (€10.87 bn from NGEU; €19.7 bn after transfers); Poland €3.85 bn, Germany €2.5 bn, Romania €2.14 bn, Czechia €1.64 bn, Bulgaria €1.2 bn; only €735 m paid out by March 2025. Social Climate Fund: €86.7 bn 2026-2032 incl. 25% national co-financing; ETS2 delayed to 2028 (adopted 5 March 2026), EU share falls to ~€54.6 bn. ETS auction revenues: €38.8 bn (2024), >€43 bn (2025), ~€24 bn/yr to member states, 100% earmarked for climate. Cohesion policy 2021-27: €392 bn, 30% of ERDF and 37% of Cohesion Fund for climate. EIB Group 2025: record €100 bn signed, €57 bn green, €11.6 bn grids and storage.
- EU industrial policy: Net-Zero Industry Act in force 29 June 2024 (40% of deployment needs made in the EU by 2030, 15% of world market by 2040); Critical Raw Materials Act in force 23 May 2024 (47 EU + 13 non-EU strategic projects in 2025; 160+ second-round applications, decisions slipping to autumn 2026); Clean Industrial Deal 26 February 2025 (€100 bn Industrial Decarbonisation Bank; €1 bn pilot auction October 2025; CISAF 25 June 2025); Battery Booster €1.8 bn (Automotive Package 16 December 2025; €1.5 bn call opened 9 June 2026); RESourceEU 3 December 2025 (≥€3 bn); Industrial Accelerator Act proposed 4 March 2026 ("Made in Europe" content rules); MFF 2028-34 proposal 16 July 2025 (~€2 tn; European Competitiveness Fund €409 bn = €234 bn + Horizon Europe €175 bn; Council partial position 16 June 2026); 2040 climate target -90% adopted 5 March 2026 with ETS2 delayed to 2028; Grids Package 10 December 2025 (€1.2 tn to 2040); EU-China EV price-undertaking mechanism from 12 January 2026 replacing duties of 7.8-35.3% (October 2024).
- Green transition — security: ~80% of new EU PV systems use Chinese inverters (Huawei 115 GW); undocumented communication devices found in Chinese inverters (May 2025); Commission guidance of 13 May 2026 bars EU funding for projects using high-risk-supplier inverters; ENTSO-E final report on the 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout (20 March 2026): voltage-control failures, 22 recommendations; UK blocked Mingyang's £1.5 bn Scottish turbine factory (2026).
- World uranium mine production, 2024 (WNA): ~60,200 tU; 2025 estimate ~62,200 tU. Kazakhstan produced 25,839 tU in 2025 (~41%), ahead of Canada (~13,400 tU) and Namibia.
- Mine production covered ~90% of world reactor uranium requirements in 2024 (WNA); 2025 requirements: 68,920 tU. WNA's 2025 reference scenario projects ~150,000 tU/yr by 2040.
- Russia (Rosatom) holds ~43% of world uranium enrichment capacity (27.1M of ~62.9M SWU, WNA 2025); US utilities still bought 26% of their enrichment from Russia in 2025 (EIA). The US ban on Russian enriched uranium allows waivers only until 1 January 2028.
- Uranium prices: spot peaked at ~$106/lb in February 2024 (16-year high); ~$90/lb in August 2026, with the long-term price at a record $95.50/lb (UxC/TradeTech via Cameco).
- Uranium was added to the US critical minerals list on 7 November 2025; a January 2026 Section 232 proclamation found uranium imports a security threat but imposed no tariffs.
- Reactor fleet (Aug 2026): 441 operable (~404 GWe), 79 under construction — 37 of them in China. Announced US tech-company nuclear deals exceed 9.8 GW.
- Oil and gas (as of 3 September 2026): the Strait of Hormuz carried ~20.9 mb/d of crude and products in 1H25 (EIA; ~15 mb/d crude, ~5.5 mb/d products; ~84% to Asia), ~20% of world LNG and ~29% of seaborne LPG. Iran closed it to normal commercial traffic on 2 March 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on 28 February; EIA estimates 4.9 mb/d transited in 2Q26 and Gulf crude shut-ins averaged 10.05 mb/d in Mar-May, 7.48 mb/d in June and 5.46 mb/d in July (Saudi Arabia 2.07, Iraq 1.86, Kuwait 0.95, Qatar 0.35, Bahrain 0.13, Iran 0.10, UAE 0). The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in oil-market history.
- Oil prices 2026: Brent ~$61 in January, $116 on 9 March, $118.35 close on 31 March; Dated Brent (physical) $144.42 on 7 April — the highest since Platts began the assessment in 1987; $69 on 2 July after the 17 June US-Iran MoU; $105 on 23 July after the truce collapsed; ~$89.5 on 2 September. EIA (August 2026 STEO): Brent averages $69 (2025), $87 (2026), $69 (2027); Henry Hub $3.53 / $3.44 / $3.31; US crude production 13.6 / 13.8 / 14.2 mb/d; US LNG exports 15.1 / 17.4 / 18.6 Bcf/d; world liquids consumption 104.0 / 102.7 / 105.0 mb/d; OPEC crude 29.3 / 24.0 / 29.7 mb/d.
- IEA Oil Market Report (August 2026): world oil demand falls 1.6 mb/d in 2026 (−4.9 mb/d y/y in 2Q26) and rebounds 2.4 mb/d in 2027; supply falls 4.3 mb/d to ~102 mb/d; 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output still shut in during July; observed inventories −69 mb in July. IEA members agreed a record 400 mb emergency stock release on 11 March 2026 (US SPR 172 mb; ~290 mb released by mid-year).
- Bypass routes: Saudi East-West Petroline 7 mb/d (record throughput in 2026; Yanbu crude exports ~5 mb/d in March); UAE ADCOP Habshan-Fujairah 1.5 mb/d (UAE back to full output by June; new West-East pipeline targeted early 2027); Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan 1.6 mb/d nominal, ~200-250 kb/d flowing, plan 770 kb/d. Kuwait exported zero crude in April 2026 (first since 1991); Iraqi exports fell from ~93 to 10 million barrels in April and recovered to ~1.4 mb/d in July. Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia on 20 July 2026; Aramco's 400 kb/d Jizan refinery was shut on 27 July after strikes.
- LNG: record 437 Mt traded in 2025 (+6.3%); US 111 Mt / 15.1 Bcf/d (first country above 100 Mt; 93% of growth), Qatar 10.6 Bcf/d, Australia ~9.8 Bcf/d; top three 63%. Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan (18-19 March 2026) removed ~17% of Qatar's capacity (12.8 Mt/yr) for an estimated 3-5 years; force majeure runs into November 2026; North Field East start pushed to 4Q26. JKM $23.39/MMBtu on 28 August 2026 (four-year high); TTF above €70/MWh; EU storage 46% full on 23 June (15 bcm below the five-year average). EU bans Russian LNG from 1 January 2027 and pipeline gas from 30 September 2027.
- Crude production 2025 (EIA, crude + condensate): US 13.58 mb/d, Russia 9.87, Saudi Arabia 9.51, Canada 4.94, Iraq 4.39, China 4.34, Iran 4.19, UAE 3.82, Brazil 3.74, Kuwait 2.58. Saudi output: 7.34 mb/d in June 2026 vs ~10.29 target; ~11 mb/d reported for August. OPEC+ completed the unwinding of its 1.65 mb/d voluntary cuts with the September 2026 quota step.
- Proved crude reserves (OPEC ASB 2026, end-2025): Venezuela 303.7 bn bbl, Saudi Arabia 267.2, Iran 208.6; Canada ~163 bn including oil sands (CER basis); world ~1.57 trn (OPEC basis, excluding Canadian oil sands). Gas reserves: Russia, Iran and Qatar hold about half of the world total.
- Russia (CREA, July 2026): fossil-fuel export revenue €683m/day; buyers China €7.7bn (43%), India €6.4bn (record; India's Russian crude imports hit 2.8 mb/d), Türkiye €1.8bn, EU €1.5bn; Urals $60.22/bbl, a 26% ($21) discount to Brent after a $7-8 premium in April-May; price cap frozen at $44.10 since February 2026; 53% of seaborne crude on sanctioned shadow tankers. Rosneft and Lukoil under direct US sanctions since 22 October 2025. Seaborne crude exports hit a post-invasion record 4.13 mb/d (four weeks to 28 June 2026).
- Iran: exports 1.84 mb/d (March 2026) fell below 300 kb/d in May and to 251 kb/d in August under the US naval blockade in force since 13 April; Kharg Island handles ~90-94% of crude exports; South Pars strikes (18 March) hit ~12% of gas output. Venezuela: Maduro captured 3 January 2026; OFAC General Licenses 46/47 (29 January) reopened the oil sector; output 1.12 mb/d in July 2026; Chevron holds 49% of its PDVSA JV and pledged $7bn (2 September 2026) to double output by 2031.
- Chokepoints, 1H25 (EIA, crude + products): Malacca 23.2 mb/d, Hormuz 20.9, Cape of Good Hope 9.1, Suez Canal + SUMED 4.9, Danish Straits 4.9, Bab el-Mandeb 4.2 (8.1 mb/d in 2Q26), Turkish Straits 3.7, Panama Canal 2.3.

## Data sources

- USGS National Minerals Information Center — Mineral Commodity Summaries
- British Geological Survey — World Mineral Statistics
- UN Comtrade — bilateral trade flows
- IEA — Critical Minerals demand scenarios and supply-chain analysis
- World Bank WITS
- World Nuclear Association (mining, fuel cycle, World Nuclear Fuel Report), IAEA PRIS, NEA/IAEA Red Book, US EIA uranium reports (uranium dashboard)
- IEA World Energy Investment, Energy Technology Perspectives, Global EV Outlook and Global Hydrogen Review; SolarPower Europe; GWEC; WindEurope; ACEA; EHPA; BloombergNEF; SNE Research; Wood Mackenzie; Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (green transition dashboard)
- European Commission and CINEA (Innovation Fund, Hydrogen Bank, RRF scoreboard, Just Transition Fund, Modernisation Fund, Social Climate Fund, ETS revenues, cohesion policy), Council of the EU, European Investment Bank (EU green funds)
- US EIA (Short-Term Energy Outlook, International Energy Statistics, World Oil Transit Chokepoints), IEA (Oil Market Report, Gas Market Report, World Energy Investment, emergency-response notices), OPEC (Annual Statistical Bulletin, Monthly Oil Market Report), Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, CREA and KSE Institute (Russian export tracking), Kpler and Vortexa (tanker tracking) (oil and gas dashboard)

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